Ukraine military extends control in Black Sea

Originally published at Europe in Review on October, 2023

The Ukrainian armed forces have conducted a successful campaign against the Russian navy in the Black Sea in contrast to the slow gains they are making on the battlefield.

Ukraine has utilised the air launched British supplied Storm Shadow missile to attack Russian ships in port.A Ukrainian Storm Shadow missile strike destroyed the Russian Black Sea Fleet naval headquarters on September 22. [Telegram] [Independent] Another attack in mid-September on the Sergo Ordzhonikidze shipyard in Sevastopol, a repair yard, or dry dock, for the Russian navy incapacitated the landing vessel Minsk and destroyed the diesel electric submarine Rostov-on-Don. [Telegram] [Independent] [Naval News][CNN] [Washington Post]

An attack in August on the Russian navy in Novorossiysk demonstrated that the whole of the Black Sea can now be covered by Ukrainian sea going drones. [AP] [Forbes]

Ukraine has also been using its own indigenously produced Neptune anti-ship missile and establishing a coastal defensive zone. The Neptune, with a reported range of up to 300 kilometres, was used in April 2022, to destroy the Moskva, flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet. Russian ships are effectively excluded from the Ukrainian coastal defence zone, providing immediate relief to Ukrainian coastal cities and towns and protection from direct naval attack or maritime assault from the sea, although long range missile attacks continue. [WSJ] [WSJ]

The Russian blockade of Ukrainian grain exports by sea has also been broken. [AP]

This has enabled international cargo ships to dock in the Danube Delta, which allows Ukrainian exporters to load grain onto ships in the Danube. These vessels can navigate downstream through Romanian waters into the Black Sea under North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) protection then onwards through NATO protected Romanian, Bulgarian, and Turkish waters to the Mediterranean.

While Russia has been able to reduce the tonnage of exported grain, Ukraine has been able to export two thirds of the grain it exported last year through this new export channel without Russian agreement to a grain deal. [Ukragroconsult] [Bloomberg]

Ukraine may be able to further extend its attack zone after AMMO, a reported Ukrainian non-profit organisation, announced it has developed a prototype underwater unmanned drone (UUV) named Marichka with a range of 1,000 kilometres. The entire Black Sea would be within reach of such systems and if sufficient quantities can be produced, Ukraine would not only be able to defend its shores but contest the Black Sea itself with the Russian Navy by denying it safe harbour. [Drive] [AMMO] [Telegraph]

(rw/gc)