EU watches for turmoil within Israel government
Originally published at Europe in Review on November, 2023
As the Israeli offensive in Gaza starts, the European Union is watching to see how the attack by Hamas impacts the country’s internal political landscape and by extension the political dynamics of the Middle East, a strategic region for the leaders of Europe.
Rifts among Israel’s top officials erupted into the open after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared to blame the military and security establishment for the failures that led to the surprise Hamas assault on October 7. [NYTimes]
“At no time and no stage was a warning given to Prime Minister Netanyahu regarding war intentions of Hamas,” Netanyahu wrote in the now-deleted post on X, formerly Twitter. “On the contrary, all security officials, including the head of army intelligence and the head of the Shin Bet, estimated that Hamas was deterred and interested in an arrangement.” [MSN]
Netanyahu’s comments on X, formerly Twitter, prompted a furious response, including from within his war cabinet. The post was deleted, and the Israeli leader later apologised in a new post, saying: “I was wrong.” The political fallout from the surprise Hamas attack, which killed more than 1,400, has been contained as the Israeli government unifies around the tragedy and its military response.
The massive surprise terrorist attack has predictably incited a search for accountability. The government is blaming the security establishment, which they claim was rife with political opponents focused on protesting government policies instead of intelligence work and failed to recognize, prepare for, or communicate signs of an impending Hamas attack.
Political opponents and critics intend to hold the Parliamentary majority accountable for the security failure. Following the attack Prime Minister Netanyahu declared a government of national unity and invited the candidates he defeated in the previous election to join his government to bring the country together in a time of national crisis. The invitation was accepted by opposition National Unity Party leader, retired general, and former Defense Minister Benny Gantz. [JNS]
Netanyahu’s opponents are not yet calling for him to step down. “I’m not dealing now with who is to blame or why we were surprised,” said former Prime Minister Yair Lapid, now leader of the opposition. “It’s not the time, it’s not the place.” [Yahoo]
Israel’s internal political turmoil also comes as some member states within the European Union (EU) have pushed for a ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hamas to deliver more humanitarian aid to Palestinian civilians in the besieged Gaza Strip. A political fallout in Israel may create further obstacles for the European Union and the United States as they try to end the fighting or create humanitarian corridors for the besieged population in Gaza.
Israel history
It would be surprising if Bibi’s prime ministership survived this war, according to Amit Segal, chief political commentator for Israel’s Channel 12. “It would set a national precedent,” he told CNN. “Israeli history has taught us that each and every surprise and crisis led to the collapse of the government. [Yahoo]
History is against him. Golda Meier resigned after the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Menahem Begin stepped down following the First Lebanon War in 1983, and Ehud Olmert left office after the Second Lebanon War, giving way to Israel’s current leader, Netanyahu. [Yahoo]
Netanyahu has tried to rally Israeli troops. “All the people of Israel are behind you and we deal the harshest blow to our enemies in order to achieve victory. To victory! Are you ready?!,” he said during a visit with the Golani Brigade on the border.
In an October 26 address to the nation, Netanyahu made it clear that the Israelis “are in the midst of a campaign for our existence.” The Israeli leader also said that there must be an investigation into the failure of Israeli intelligence to catch the attack on October 7 before it could be carried out saying: “The fault will be examined and everyone will have to give answers, including me.” [Wall Street Journal] [Al-Monitor]
Netanyahu’s polls
Unsurprisingly, recent polls reveal that Netaniyahu’s popularity has fallen sharply. According to a poll, a significant majority of Israeli respondents, including 86% overall and 79% of coalition supporters, hold the government and the PM responsible for the infiltration of Hamas terrorists into Israel. [jpost.com]
The poll showed that 56% (with 28% of coalition voters) believe Netanyahu should resign at the end of Operation Swords of Iron, and 52% expect Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to leave. Another poll suggests growing support for Benny Gantz’s National Unity party. [Times of Israel]
Former NATO chief Javier Solana said that he believes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is the “worst politician” in Israeli history. “I don’t think anything good will come of this,” he told Spanish broadcaster Cadena Ser, referring to this month’s events in Israel and Palestine. [AA]
“But it could make Netanyahu disappear from Israeli politics,” said Solana, who was the EU’s chief diplomat from 1999 to 2009. [AA]
Great survivor
Netanyahu is the great survivor of Israeli politics: after serving as Prime Minister for three years in the nineties and then a dozen more starting in 2009, he returned—despite myriad legal troubles—in December as the head of the most right-wing government in the nation’s history. [TheNewYorker]
Netanyahu’s policies concerning Gaza have fluctuated, from discussing potential occupation in 2019 to efforts to expand economic lifeline and increase the workforce flow, with the number of Gazan workers commuting to Israel reaching 17,000. His approach aimed to maintain a fragile peace with Hamas while hoping the terrorist group would destabilise the Palestinian regime. Hamas played along, feigning interest in Gaza’s development as well as Palestinian politics [Washington Institute]
Netanyahu has also faced ten months of protests against his controversial and divisive judicial overhaul, his corruption case – and a near-death experience – this is battered and beaten Bibi, not the vintage version.
If Netanyahu were to fall from power, it would likely mark the end of the highly contested judicial reform, a significant promise he made to voters in 2022. This reform aimed to shift power by placing the judicial system under greater government control.
Israel has no formal constitution and Israeli courts were, uniquely among Western democracies, able to overturn laws passed by Parliament they deemed objectionable without any formal court challenge until the Netanyahu led reforms. [jpost.com]
(md-rw/gc)